Below is an analysis of nationally defined graduation rates for 2007 for the 50 states and how it interacts with other important education indicators such as funding, demographics, and achievement.

Interstate inequities in graduation rates are dramatic, particularly when aggregated.

The top five states in terms of graduation rate in the country--Vermont, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska--graduate, on average, 29 percent more students than the bottom five states--Nevada, South Carolina, New Mexico, Louisiana, and Mississippi, where Nevada has the lowest graduation rate.

High school graduation rates vary by region.

On average, states in the Northeast and Midwest have higher graduation rates than states in the South and the West. In the Midwestern states, which have the highest average graduation rate, approximately 81.9 percent high school freshmen go on to graduate high school. In the Southern states, which have the lowest average graduation rate, only 69.7 percent do. All but one of the 10 states with the lowest graduation rates are in the South or the West, while all but one of the 10 highest-performing states are located in the Northeast or Midwest. 1

In South Carolina, only 68.9 percent of high school freshman go on to graduate, ranking the state 49th in the country. Compare this to similar-sized (and also much wealthier) Minnesota, where 86.5 percent graduate. This means that Minnesota graduates almost 24,000 more freshman than South Carolina—around 36 percent of each state’s 9th grade population.

High school graduation rate is roughly correlated with student poverty and statewide per-pupil expenditure levels.

In general, states that have higher graduation rates have lower student poverty rates. In the states that rank in the bottom 10 in high school graduation rate, 20.0 percent of students are living in poverty, in comparison to the states that rank in the top 10, where 12.6 percent of students are living in poverty.

In addition, there is a relationship between high school graduation rate and statewide per-pupil expenditure. While this correlation is not as strong as the correlation with student poverty, states that have higher graduation rates generally spend more on education. This relationship could also be a reflection of student demographics and relative state poverty. 2 The states that rank in the bottom 10 in high school graduation rate spend, on average, $9,111 per-pupil, while the states that rank in the top 10 spend $10,509 per-pupil.

High school graduation rates have decreased slightly since 1992.

The percent of high school freshman that go on to graduate has decreased from 74.2 percent to 73.9 percent between 1992 and 2007. In 1996, the graduation rate fell as low as 71.0 percent. Between 2005 and 2006, the graduation rate dropped more than one percentage point from 74.7 percent to 73.4 percent but bumped up slightly in 2007 to 73.9 percent.

1. 1. Based on Census Bureau-designated regions. Northeast: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont. Midwest: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin. South: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia. West: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming
2. 2. David W. Grissmer, Ann Flanagan, Jennifer H. Kawata, & Stephanie Williamson, RAND Corporation, Improving Student Achievement: What State NAEP Test Scores Tell Us